Teide Challenge
Yorkshire gut feeling vs. data science
Tenerife, March 2027. Two men. Both 195 cm. One volcano. Los Cristianos to the Teide cable car: 51 km, 2,300 m of up, no excuses.
In the orange corner: Uncle Stan, 68. Forged on Yorkshire hills. Exhibit A: 100 kilometres, Stan, and a lot of grit. Training plan: "I'll know when I get there." Pacing strategy: feel. Nutrition strategy: a flask of tea and a sandwich that has seen things. Has an FTP in Strava. Has never once looked at it.
In the purple corner: me, 58. Strava. Smart trainer. Apple Health. A homelab running physics simulations that solve air drag every 250 metres. I have W/kg to two decimal places. I have a model.
He has nine fewer kilos.
Which, irritatingly, matters more on a volcano than all my data combined. The maths below is honest even when it isn't on my side. Especially then. For now.
| Rider | km | Altitude | Speed | Gradient | Projected finish |
|---|
Tune the riders
Dean 58
W/kg FTP
Climbs at W (75% of FTP)
Stan (David) 68
W/kg FTP
Climbs at W (75% of FTP)
How it works
Weight and FTP come from each rider's Strava settings. On the steep stuff (3%+) a rider holds about 75% of FTP for the whole day. Nobody rides like a robot, though: on false flats power eases off, and from −3% down they freewheel. The route is cut into 250 m segments. For each one, the model solves for the speed where rider power equals gravity + rolling resistance + air drag. Assumptions: bike + kit 10 kg, CdA 0.40 m² (tall riders on the hoods), Crr 0.005, drivetrain 97%. Air thins with altitude: less drag, but also less oxygen. Unacclimatised riders lose ~6% power per 1,000 m above 1,000 m. Speed capped at 25 km/h through Los Cristianos and 40 km/h on descents (bends, hire bikes, self-preservation). Speeds shown are averaged over the last kilometre. No wind, no café stops, no excuses.